With all the hubbub over global warming, one wonders why the media is curiously silent about an issue that may be a much more immanent — and catastrophic — threat. The term is "Peak Oil" and essentially refers to that time when we'll run out of oil. (Technically it's not running out so much as reaching an absolute peak of oil production followed by a point if diminishing returns.) Some people claim it could happen any year now (or already has); others predict it won't happen for another twenty years. What's clear is that the world supply of oil is strained (chiefly by guess who) and will eventually be exhausted, and we don't know for sure when that will be, but it could be in our lifetimes. And that our society will suffer a serious — perhaps mortal — blow when it happens.
Basically what we're talking about is almost rolling back the industrial age. Well, not exactly — there is still biodiesel, which with a little bit of research may keep the trucks and cars running (if you have a diesel car).
No more plastic, by the way, either — it comes from oil. Those plastic utensils you've been using for lunch at work every day when you could have been using metal? Probably will be worth more than the metal ones. All those plastic bottles for holding New York tap water you willingly paid exorbitant prices for (the water, not the plastic) — you're gonna wish you kept them all. Everything that is made with plastic today, which is most items, will have to be designed without it. And that will be expensive.
Wikipedia has a sobering thought: "Liberal estimations of peak production forecast a peak will happen in the 2020s or 2030s and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.
"Conservative predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that the peak has already occurred or will occur shortly and, as proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, predict a global depression, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization."
The problem, as I intimated earlier, is that societies are not preparing for this moment, chiefly by developing technology that will serve us when that moment comes, and also by making judicious use of the resources we are using. There is a certain amount of bootstrapping that will need to be done to enjoy at least some of our way of life. For example, if we build nuclear power plants now, we'll have electricity. You can't build a nuclear power plant without oil though, so when you're out of oil, it's too late. Guess you can't well build much of anything large without oil, I suppose.
My only hope is that when this happens (and it will happen, eventually) it will happen slowly enough to allow us to adjust according to market forces. The worst thing that would happen is for the oil to just stop with little warning. That's unlikely to happen but the more tapering off, the better.
I'll be curious to hear what Gary has to say on this subject. :-)
